Chilling Echo for Lebanon, Mirror of Regional Tension - New York Times

Chilling Echo for Lebanon, Mirror of Regional Tension - New York Times: "Chilling Echo for Lebanon, Mirror of Regional Tension
By MICHAEL SLACKMAN

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Nov. 26 — In April 1975, gunmen fired on a church in East Beirut in what appeared to be an attempt to kill Pierre Gemayel, founder of the main right-wing Lebanese Christian militia. He was not killed, but the shooting set off a cycle of revenge that became a 15-year civil war.

Last week, three gunmen assassinated Mr. Gemayel’s grandson and namesake, a government minister and symbol of Lebanon’s besieged Christian, pro-Western community. Now an unnerving question is emerging here: as the battle between the Iranian-backed group Hezbollah and the Western-backed governing coalition reaches a crescendo, is it in fact the prelude to a civil war?

Lebanon’s seeming slide toward civil conflict is not just a symbol of unfortunate historic symmetry. This country is a barometer for the region, serving as a measure of tensions and rivalries.

It is no coincidence that Lebanon is suffering its worst political crisis in decades at a time when Iraq has descended into sectarian war, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the past few months reached new heights and power seems to be shifting away from the Western-allied "