Ructions in Dubai's property market | Not-so-hot property | The Economist

Ructions in Dubai's property market | Not-so-hot property | The Economist: "Not-so-hot property

Oct 9th 2008 | DUBAI
From The Economist print edition
Is Dubai being hit by the turmoil?

YOU may have thought that if anywhere would be insulated from the financial chaos, it would be Dubai, the ritzy commercial capital of the oil-rich Gulf. Not so. Events across the world are causing pain there too, even though much of the emirate’s cash has not made its way to the banks; it is held by ruling families and in their sovereign wealth funds.

Dubai’s oil revenues are small. Sheikh Muhammad bin Rashid al-Maktoum, the energetic ruler of the second largest emirate of the seven that make up the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has chosen to diversify, especially into real estate, as his way forward. Investors in Dubai property have done well in recent years, enjoying returns of roughly 80% since early last year.

Two factors have underpinned prices. The first is negative real (ie, below-inflation) interest rates, which track those in the United States. Borrowers can apply to banks and still borrow very cheaply. And since some think the official inflation rate seriously underestimates price increases in Dubai, there is a big incentive to borrow from banks and invest somewhere else.

The second factor is the continuing influx of wor"